Geopolitics and AI now top disruptors for global businesses, Payoneer survey finds
A new survey from Payoneer, a financial technology company that helps businesses manage cross-border payments, reveals that geopolitical conflict and artificial intelligence are now the leading sources of disruption for international businesses. Tariffs, which have dominated trade discussions in recent years, rank fifth among business concerns.
The survey gathered responses from 8,626 cross-border businesses across 20 countries between March and May 2026. It found that 55% of businesses had experienced significant operational disruptions over the previous six months. Among those affected, geopolitical conflict and AI-driven technological change were the most frequently cited causes, each impacting about 14% of respondents.
Tariffs affect roughly 7% to 8% of businesses overall. However, concern about tariffs is rising rapidly, particularly among goods sellers. The share of sellers citing tariffs as a concern increased from about 11% to 18% over a one-month period.
The survey also revealed sharp regional differences. Vietnam reported the highest disruption rate at 74%, driven primarily by tariff impacts. China followed at 69%, but Chinese businesses identified currency volatility, not tariffs, as their primary challenge. South Korea also recorded high disruption linked to foreign exchange concerns. At the other end of the spectrum, businesses in the United States (43%) and the United Arab Emirates (44%) reported relatively low disruption rates.
Adam Cohen, who oversees global commerce strategy at Payoneer, said geopolitical developments now have a far greater impact on businesses than traditional tax and trade policies.
Between 44% and 48% of affected businesses have already made operational changes or are planning to do so. Their responses include diversifying supplier networks, expanding customer bases, and reconsidering hiring and workforce strategies.
Tariffs may rank fifth overall, but their growing prominence among goods sellers warrants attention. For Chinese businesses, currency volatility remains an ongoing concern that affects planning across multiple markets. The findings suggest that cross-border businesses now operate in a more complex environment where political, technological, and financial risks all demand attention. One-size-fits-all strategies are unlikely to work, given the significant variation in challenges across regions and business types.
